Ter-Petrossian lost popular support

By Paul Goble © 1998 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.

Washington, 6 February 1998 (RFE/RL) — The resignation of Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian this week highlights the limits of international pressure on countries with democratic political systems and the dangers inherent in ignoring those limits. Under pressure from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group -- led by Russia, France, and the United States -- Ter-Petrossian had been forced to accept the so-called Lisbon principles for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

Although Ter-Petrossian himself sometimes violated democratic norms, his grudging acceptance of those principles cost him the support of his own government and people. It forced his resignation. And it brought to office Robert Kocharian, someone less susceptible to international pressure and less sympathetic to the Lisbon principles.

Those principles, read out by the chairman at the OSCE summit in 1996, call for the restoration of Soviet-era borders, broad autonomy for ethnic Armenians in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, and international guarantees of such a settlement. While many have repeatedly invoked these principles as settled OSCE policy, they were in fact never formally adopted by that body. Yerevan at the time refused to give consensus, arguing that they failed to take into account its own interests and facts on the ground.

As Ter-Petrossian made clear at that time, Armenia could never agree to compromise the fate of the Armenians of Karabakh by forcing them to accept the restoration of Azerbaijani control of that disputed enclave.

As his government made clear, Armenians were being asked to concede their victories in the field with little to show for it except Azerbaijan’s promises that it would respect the autonomy of Karabakh in the future.

And neither he nor other Armenians placed much faith in the notion that the international community would in fact provide any effective monitoring of any settlement that might be reached.

Instead, they feared that the international community would with time turn away from this issue out of deference to Baku and its enormous oil wealth and because of a sense that the Karabakh situation was no longer a pressing issue.

Armenia denies threat of new hostilities in Karabakh YEREVAN (Itar-Tass) - The Armenian Foreign Ministry issued a statement published today, February 9, 1998, denying the danger of resumed hostilities between Azerbaijan and Karabakh in the wake of Armenia’s political crisis in which President Levon Ter-Petrossian stepped down. The statement says forecasts that the hostilities can renew are a “deliberately distorted interpretation of the latest events in the reoublic, seriously impeding the logical development of the process of the Karabakh conflict settlement”. The Foreign Ministry reaffirmed a readiness to observe the truce signed on May 12, 1994 and determination to “undertake all steps for it to grow into a durable and lasting peace”. The ministry’s statement reaffirmed an “unchanging position that the Karabakh conflict should be settled by way of negotiations within the framework of the Minsk group of the OSCE”.

But in the months since the 1996 summit, the leaders of the Minsk group put ever more pressure on Ter-Petrossian to agree with their ideas.

Ter-Petrossian frequently countered by pointing out that neither his government nor his electorate could support them. And he noted that the international community in the form of the Minsk group was putting all the pressure on Armenia, allowing Azerbaijan to obtain at the settlement table something it had been unable to achieve in the field.

But with each round of visits by Minsk group diplomats, Ter-Petrossian moved ever closer to the Lisbon principles, a shift that won him praise in the chancelleries of these countries but cost him support at home.

The popularity of Ter-Petrossian in these foreign capitols was evident in the comments of world leaders after his fall from office. But his unpopularity at home is the reason he fell. Ter-Petrossian clearly recognized this danger and sought to limit it last year by appointing Karabakh leader Robert Kocharian as his prime minister.

Although politically clever, that move bought Ter-Petrossian only a little time. Moreover, it meant that Kocharian who opposes the Lisbon principles could mobilize Armenian opinion against the policies of his president.

Kocharian did that with skill and abandon and the result is that Ter-Petrossian is out of office, and Kocharian is now acting president.

On the one hand, that change at the top in Armenia may introduce a certain clarity in any future talks about a settlement of the Karabakh dispute. No one can doubt where Kocharian stands, and an appreciation of that may lead to more serious talks. But on the other hand, the change in Armenia carries with it a broader lesson: international pressure on leaders of democratic, or even democratizing countries -- however well-intentioned -- may quickly become counterproductive if it fails to take into account popular attitudes there.

Ter-Petrossian was prepared to go along with the Minsk group. As he said in his resignation speech, he was the leader of the party of peace in Armenia. But in an important sense, the Minsk group was not prepared to go along with him.

The Minsk group did not take into account Armenian popular attitudes. It did not appear to many Armenians to be even-handed in its dealings with the parties to the conflict. And it did not provide Ter-Petrossian with the concessions he needed to remain in power. As a result, Ter-Petrossian is out of office. The Minsk group program is at best on hold. And the dangers of a renewed conflict in the region are far greater than they were before his departure.

Presidential elections campaign in full swing

With the transfer of power that followed the resignation of President Levon Ter-Petrossian completed, political circles in Armenia this week began to rapidly prepare for the presidential elections, set for March 16.

Several parties announced candidates immediately while others expressed support for the candidacy of Prime Minister Robert Kocharian who is serving as Acting President.

Kocharian himself signaled his availability as a candidate but a legal eligibility question has not yet been resolved. The problem rests on a clause in the Armenian constitution that requires a presidential candidate to have been a citizen and resident of Armenia for ten years. Kocharian was a citizen of Nagorno Karabagh until he was chosen Prime Minister of Armenia. However, a legal opinion is emerging that says that the years of Soviet citizenship applies to the 10 year requirement. Also, Kocharian does not belong to any functioning political party. Nonetheless, some political forces began lining up to endorse Kocharian. The Yerkrapah (Defenders of the Land) organization led by Defense Minister Vazgen Sargisian, the newly re-legalized Armenian Revolutionary Federation, Dashnak Party, the Ramgavar Asatagan Party (Liberal Democrat), and the Republican Party announced their support for Kocharian’s candidacy.

Newly released from prison, Dashnak leader Vahan Hovanessian who had been tried for leading a coup attempt, met with Kocharian and told the Acting President that the ARF party had decided to endorse his candidacy. However, each of the leading political parties named their own candidates for president.

The National Democratic Union, NDU, named Vazgen Manukian as its candidate. Manukian lost to Ter-Petrossian in 1996 but challenged the legitimacy of that election’s results.

Paruir Hayrikian, leader of the Self-Determination Union was named his party’s candidate after a party conference, and the Democratic Party of Armenia nominated its leader Aram Sargisian to run for President.

The Communist Party of Armenia named Sergey Badalian, and at a rally of the party on February 7 one leader, Samuel Martirosian reminded the audience, “The break-up of the Soviet Union began with Armenia so Armenia must begin the revival of the union.” He urged that Armenia join the Russia-Belarus union.

Armenia denies threat of new hostilities in Karabakh An analysis by the Yerevan news agency printed on Wednesday, February 11, by “Hayots Ashkhar” and “Molorak” warns that Ter-Petrossian and the HHSh are likely to try to “discredit” the new authorities by precipitating a “social explosion.” In this regard, their goals converge with those of the communists.” So the Communists are given an important role by the HHSh, concludes the analysis. An editorial in the February 12 issue of the ARF unofficial newspaper “Hayots Ashkhar” daily voices concern at the fact that some candidates may use populist rhetoric to attract votes. More specifically, it is directed against Badalian and the Communists. The daily warns against “promising everything” and “propagating reliance on foreign powers.” Badalian’s idea of a “new union with Russia” is being attacked.

All parties and candidates called for free, fair, and transparent elections. Prime Minister Kocharian declared that he wanted large numbers of international observers to monitor the March 16 election. This view was endorsed by NDU candidate Vazgen Manukian. At a rally of political parties in Yerevan on February 8 Manukian declared that the resignation of Levon Ter-Petrossian created an opportunity to expedite the process of democratization of Armenia. He added that the second phase should be new parliamentary elections to be followed by revisions in the national constitution.

Meanwhile, the Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh), together with its remaining allies in the Hanrapetutyun (Republic) parliamentary bloc, appear to have decided to abstain from naming their own presidential candidate.

At a meeting to discuss the election and future actions, it was announced that Babken Ararktsian, former Speaker of Parliament, would replace Vano Siradeghian as leader of the Hanrapetutyun Bloc. Siradeghian led the list of resignees of the Ter-Petrossian government when he left his post as Mayor of Yerevan.

Defense Minister Vazgen Sargisian, who reportedly played a significant role in the political demise of President Ter-Petrossian, denied any aspirations to become president and dismissed rumors that a military dictatorship might emerge in Armenia.

[Source: Armenian news services - ARMENIA THIS WEEK, Friday, February 13, 1998]